Monday, January 1, 2018

2018 New Models

A Segment (City Cars)

Image result for zhidou d3 ev

Zhidou D3 EV



With the five best selling models in this segment coming from China, overseas legacy OEMs have no chance in succeding in this market on a global level, except on the (Not so) Cheap and Chic niche, where FIAT continues to waste the 500e potential by only offering it in a limited number of markets, so 2018 should continue to see the number of new small EVs increase in China, trying to replicate the BAIC EC-Series success. My bet lies on the Zhidou D3 EV, it won't reach the EC-Series sales numbers, but will probably reach the class podium seat, a year from now.


B Segment (Subcompacts)

Image result for 2018 nissan micra ev
Nissan Micra

No major news in this class, except for the promised EV version of the new Nissan Micra which, should it arrive, will face stiff competition, starting with its Renault Zoe and the BMW i3, the Japanese hatch won't be able to reach these two, but it could have a shot at Third Place.


C Segment (Compacts)

Image result for 2018 nissan Leaf
2018 Nissan Leaf

The most popular EV in the World, the Nissan Leaf, had a major facelift and will start to be delivered in most markets this year, Nissan has big ambitions for the new version, with a sales target of 150.000 units, possibly earning it the class best seller status and a podium seat in the PEV ranking.


D Segment (Midsize)

Image result for 2018 tesla model 3
Tesla Model 3

The Tesla Model 3, the EV that everyone is talking about, technically landed in 2017, but mass production will only start in 2018, so the Tesla Model 3 will possibly be the major introduction this year, being the main candidate for Best Selling PEV in 2018, with 200k/250k units likely. Another interesting addition is the Honda Clarity PHEV, also technically a 2017 model, will have its full potential shown this year, willing to keep up with the sales of the German midsizers, particularly the increasingly successful BMW 330e.


E Segment (Full Size)

Image result for 2019 porsche mission E
Porsche Mission E











With the German Autobahn-PHEV-bruisers still far from running at the same sales pace of the all-conquering Tesla Model S, the Freemont-made car will only have a serious contender in 2019, when the Porsche Mission E is set to land. Will it outsell the Model S? Doubt it, but will likely make a dent in the Tesla Sport-Sedan sales, the first to do so...


F Segment (Full Size Luxury)

Image result for Audi A8 PHEV
Audi A8 PHEV










If this year the Porsche Panamera PHEV trounced the established players, easily winning the race, the upcoming Audi A8 PHEV will have the same PHEV hardware as the Porsche, but despite this, it will have a harder time to make an impact, i believe Audi would already be pleased if it reached a podium seat...



SUV / CUV

Image result for 2018 Porsche cayenne PHEV
2018 Porsche Cayenne PHEV












With the mainstream auto market suffering from a Crossover fever, the PEV niche is also not immune to it, with the Hyundai Kona BEV, Kia Niro PHEV/BEV and Yuan PHEV/BEV twins making an impact in the class, if the respective brands manage to make enough of them, which isn't a given, these are models that could possibly run for a Top 5 spot in the class.

The new Porsche Cayenne PHEV will try to replicate the success of the 2nd Gen Panamera PHEV in the Full-size Premium SUV class, trying to reach a podium seat in its niche.

Fully electric Premium SUVs will start arriving in 2018, with the Jaguar i-Pace and Audi e-Tron being the first representatives of the so-called Model X killers. If the German model is set to arrive only by the end of the year, and in limited quantities, qualifying it more as a 2019 model, the British model is set to arrive sooner (Summer?), and by the end of this year we should have an idea of how big will be its impact on the market.

A bit of a Dark Horse, with a lot to prove, but also with plenty to win, the NIO ES8 is the first mass-market model from a Chinese startup to arrive. Will it be any good? Will the brand be able to make it in large quantities? More importantly, in the long run, will buyers continue to flock into it by the thousands?

So...Lots of stuff going on in this class.


MPV / Minivans

With two of the class Best Sellers (Ford C-Max Energy and Mercedes B250e) ending their career, and no big novelties in 2018, it's up to the BMW 225xe AT, and the oldtimer BYD e6 the difficult task to sustain the momentum in 2018.


LCV / Vans

Image result for Nissan e-NV200
Nissan e-NV200

In a segment dominated until 2017 by just two models, the Renault Kangoo ZE and Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia, the delivery ramp up of the StreetScooter Work allowed it to race with the previous two, with the Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia still leading the (small) pack. With the Japanese van set to receive the 40 kWh battery from the new Nissan Leaf soon, expect it to breakaway from the remaining two this year.


Sports Cars / Convertibles

Image result for 2018 bmw i8 roadster
BMW i8 Spyder

After putting to shame the little competition it had over these last four years, the BMW i8 is almost synonymous with this category, entering in 2018 with upgrades and the long awaited Spyder version, so at least until the arrival of the new Tesla Roadster, the i8 has this market all to itself.


Pick-up Trucks

Image result for Tesla Truck
Tesla Model ????















With the end of the Mitsubishi Minicab Miev Truck, of which were made some 1.000 units over a four year span, this highly profitable class have only competitors from China, with the 2017 Best Selling Electric Pick-up Truck  being the Dongfeng Rich EV selling some 400 units. 

In fact, the largest number of electric pick-ups of a single model still date date back for the Dinosaur Era (Ford Ranger EV, with 1.705 units delivered from 1998 to 2002).

 It seems we all have to wait for Tesla to shake things up with its own Pick-up Truck...

2 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. True, 2019/20 should be the years where the rEVolution becomes unstoppable, but this year there are three things to keep an eye on:

      - China, of course;

      - How much Model 3 will Tesla make;

      - How high will the new Leaf sales go? 75k? 100k? 150k?

      Delete